Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033831 0.038521 0.043650 0.049680 0.056581 0.064238 0.073388
2025-02-02 0.027123 0.033647 0.041435 0.051438 0.063975 0.079206 0.099178
2025-02-09 0.023543 0.030940 0.040310 0.053091 0.070136 0.092177 0.122992
2025-02-16 0.020322 0.027982 0.038163 0.052745 0.073205 0.101051 0.142099
2025-02-23 0.018084 0.025925 0.036786 0.053020 0.076826 0.110708 0.163031
2025-03-02 0.016014 0.023789 0.034961 0.052300 0.078750 0.117926 0.180997
2025-03-09 0.014780 0.022687 0.034441 0.053331 0.083218 0.129160 0.206060
2025-03-16 0.013360 0.021127 0.033032 0.052785 0.085096 0.136484 0.225626
2025-03-23 0.012637 0.020560 0.033066 0.054458 0.090591 0.149971 0.256596
2025-03-30 0.011314 0.018882 0.031150 0.052719 0.090222 0.153708 0.271338
2025-04-06 0.010353 0.017705 0.029926 0.051986 0.091425 0.160120 0.291305
2025-04-13 0.009291 0.016251 0.028096 0.050007 0.090205 0.162110 0.303362
2025-04-20 0.008951 0.016039 0.028411 0.051907 0.096236 0.177845 0.343148
2025-04-27 0.008617 0.015809 0.028674 0.053742 0.102346 0.194380 0.386500
2025-05-04 0.008295 0.015566 0.028880 0.055473 0.108404 0.211392 0.432718
2025-05-11 0.007727 0.014804 0.028047 0.055110 0.110307 0.220446 0.463635
2025-05-18 0.007292 0.014259 0.027574 0.055398 0.113518 0.232401 0.501987
2025-05-25 0.006778 0.013509 0.026633 0.054645 0.114493 0.239820 0.531303
2025-06-01 0.006508 0.013224 0.026587 0.055724 0.119420 0.256028 0.582048
2025-06-08 0.006090 0.012599 0.025796 0.055152 0.120714 0.264497 0.616034
2025-06-15 0.005930 0.012497 0.026074 0.056903 0.127301 0.285308 0.681454
2025-06-22 0.005455 0.011685 0.024786 0.055083 0.125630 0.287244 0.701549
2025-06-29 0.005112 0.011130 0.024002 0.054316 0.126302 0.294634 0.735927